GREECE VOTES TO HELP GERMAN EXPORTS ?

Greek people can be incredibly kind.  The recent vote of 29.5% in favour of staying in the Eurozone is evidence of their kindness.  Well its evidence of the kindness of 29.5% of the 60% who took the trouble to vote.  I never imagined they would be prepared to preserve the low value of the German Euro ( aka Deutsche Mark) and so enable magnificent Germany to live in the certainty of a continuing healthy export performance.  In effect Greece and the other struggling European countries are subsidising Germany and definitely not vice versa. Without the poor relations in the Eurozone the Euro's value would soar stacking up no end of trouble for  Europe's stronger economies. 

Many commentators ( especially those down at the dear old BBC ) warn of immediate perils if countries leave the Eurozone.  Immediate perils to whom ?  Certainly not the countries leaving the Eurozone.  And few commentators look at the longer term.  I have blogged before to say how much better Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain might be if only they had the courage to revert to their original currencies, proud once more to stand on their own feet making their own decisions in the best interests of their country.  True the drachma, for example,  would assume a unit value less than the current unit worth of the Euro. But therein is the advantage.  The relative trading position of Greece would improve immediately and with it the opportunity to strengthen its trading position in geographical Europe and worldwide.  Likewise German exports would slow down as progressively they became more expensive. Somehow the German economy would need to adjust to the changed characteristics of the playing field !

The Eurozone with Greece as a participant is probably finished.  A vote to stay in the Eurozone by 18% of those allowed to vote does not solve anything.  By tomorrow a new Greek government may be cobbled together.  However, it will have to be a rather special type of government to take the Greek people where they don't want to go.  I reckon the chance of success is zero.  But then, going forward,  (and hopefully civil unrest is avoided) the Greek people can think and vote yet again.  Perhaps to vote in huge numbers to revert to their own currency, and move on by setting a splendid example to the other struggling Eurozone economies. 

COLLAPSE OF THE EURO AND THE EUROZONE

I can't help thinking this is the calm before the storm.  Have you noticed there is almost a news blackout on the struggling European countries and their economies? It's almost as though Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain no longer have any financial problems !! Ponder this for a moment.  Is it all too good to be true?

True there are some parts of Europe where confidence is returning.  But therein lies the problem. Now is the time the stronger countries of the Eurozone could contemplate "pulling up the ladder."  They will see a way forward for themselves but not for their weaker Eurozone partners.  How strong Eurozone loyalty when really put to the test ?

No this is the calm before the storm.  What form of storm might well be the issue.  Watch this space.

WHY IS EUROPE AND THE EUROZONE STRUGGLING?

Brace yourselves.  I've been thinking.  What do the countries of Europe have in common?  Well they're in the same geographical area.  So that's a start.  Otherwise?  Frankly very little. The peoples of the individual countries of Europe are different one to the other in almost every respect.  And that is something to be celebrated.  Why on earth would they want to get on together?  Well obviously they don't want to fight each other.  But then do we really need a European Union to achieve such peace??  Look around.  The Belgians don't like the Dutch and vice versa. Nobody likes the Brits or the Greeks, the French like the Germans because they have to, the Portuguese dislike the Spanish and vice versa, the Italians seem to like everyone from time to time, and so on and so on.  Trying to make these various European countries get on with each other is actually asking for trouble.  Take the Greek situation at March 2012.  Here is a country which is being told what it will do when it will do it and how it will do it!!! Unbelieveable.  Leave the Greek people alone and they will solve their problems in their own way and in their own time.  Otherwise take the consequences.  Next to be given dictates no doubt it will be the Portuguese and the Spanish.  LEAVE THEM ALONE !!!  How,  one wonders,  would France and Germany react to such intolerable interference.

No the only thing most Europeans have in common is the Euro.....and the only reason they have the Euro is because it suits a couple of over-assertive European countries.  

The only way to get real confidence back in Europe is to let each European country make its own decisions in its own time in accordance with its own traditions, work ethics, and under its own motivation.  The confidence will return to each country as and when the time is right.  A message to Brussels !! Dissolve yourselves sooner rather than later and have the maturity to leave the individual countries of Europe alone........of course there's a fat chance of those particular fat cats letting go of things.  Unfortunately there is a perception, maybe wrong,  that  Members of the European Parliament think more about their personal situation than the situation of the country they represent.  What do you think?

EUROZONE - EUROPE AND ITS VICE PRESIDENT

Just watched an interview of this woman on BBC World.  It confirmed my suspicions that the UK should have absolutely nothing to do with Europe as forced down the throats of its participants by "Brussels."  The woman was asked many interesting questions; she didn't give one straighforward answer, bless her.  But marks out of ten? Nil points.

However the impression she gave was that pretty much everyone in the European Community will fall in line - repeat will fall in line - with dictates from Brussels.  Even when asked about the threat to put Hungary into liquidation unless it changed its laws to comply with a particular dictate she ducked.  Nevertheless the impression I was left with was one of blackmail; change your law or you don't get the money!  Perhaps I'm wrong; maybe it was a language problem?  But whatever - that's the impression I got.

And the final killer question?  What will happen to Greece?  Well of course she didn't get anywhere near answering that one.  But we'll find out any day now.  Will Brussels ditch them?  I'm going to say yes. Sooner than you think.  But if not, then definitely later.

No the UK ( or England and Wales if it comes to that ) can do without any further "Brussels" involvement.  Quite frankly, unlike the majority of real people in Europe ( including the real residents of Belgium !),  they're just not our type.

PORTUGAL AND GREECE FINANCIAL EMBARRASSMENT

Portugal.  What a lovely country and great people. But what a shame their economy, like many in the eurozone is screwed. How could things have got to this sorry state?  Maybe it's something to do with the futile dream of some of their northern European neighbours for a "United States of Europe"? 


How can you have a united anything when, quite reasonably, each of the countries in Europe, and each of the countries in the Eurozone consider themselves first and foremost independent countries?  Unlike the splendid role model across the Atlantic, the countries of mainland Europe  show  no signs of becoming happily united  - except of course to the extent of being a sort of expensive social club.


The current European practise of bunging these failing countries more money, and so increasing their financial and moral debt is flawed. It simply beats them up some more and hangs them out to dry. Nice eh? To add insult to injury they then poke rather large European noses into the struggling countrys' fiscal and social governments  . Ask yourself how you would feel if another country began to interfere with the running of your country.    

Beware! If interference continues then, God forbid, social unrest moves up the agenda. 


The Greek situation has now gone rapidly down the drain and the only long-term solution - which should be clear for all to see  - is to let them escape the Eurozone and get on with governing themselves once more without interference from grossly overpaid Brussels Eurocrats.  And the same goes for Portugal.  Leave them both alone for heaven's sake!! Let their own currencies re-emerge, let their economies rebalance, and give them back the respect they deserve. 

END OF THE OUZOZONE?

Look out. Here they come again !! Mr Papandreou has been "forced" to changed his mind and no longer seeks a referendum. Wicked !!  By all accounts he changed his mind because German and French "friends" from the current eurozone  threatened his country with bankruptcy. Nice eh?  


Now call me a kill-joy but I thought that was just the problem.  I thought they were already bankrupt. Let's not get all technical and revert to econotalk; its simple. Greece can't meet its liabilities.  The only way out - for a while -  is for some poor sots to write off half what it owes, and for eurozoptimists to bail it out somehow.  And, not unnaturally, these benefactors would require Greece to put in place very severe measures to turn around their economy. Dream on !! 


Do we really need to ask why, given the chance, most Greeks would have voted against the plan and its severe measures, and yet also would have voted to stay in the eurozone?! Possibly something to do with the quite understandable longing to preserve their roots, return to the beloved drachma, retirement for all at 50,  long sunny days sucking olives and quoffing ouzo, with the confidence to care not a monkey's about the world around them ?


For me this is the crux of the matter.  And if the eurozoptimists insist on trying to change a nation's character, then they might well get their fingers burned more than just the once. Some countries need to have their own currency; and there could be quite a few of them in Europe. They need a currency which reacts to the country's character, its roots, its work ethic, and so on.


It still seems to me inevitable that Greece will default; if not now,  then later. It would leave the Eurozone.  Now according to the intelligensia, the UK would then be doomed by some powerful knock on effect. Frankly I doubt it - but maybe.  Think of it all in family terms.  It's sometimes worth drawing the line, declaring bankruptcy, and starting again with as clean a sheet as possible.