SMITHERS !! HEADMASTER'S STUDY - NOW!

LibLabCon, as UKIP call them, appear to be in complete disarray.  Taking them one at a time this is how it looks from here.

Once reasonably supported, Liberals have disappeared near completely from favour. Whatever support they once had appears to have dissolved without so much as a bubble!  No sign whatsoever of any fizz. A half-empty glass of weak lemonade? 

Kindly, inoffensive, politicaly correct, and non-judgemental. These are Liberal strengths. Without exception they might make wonderful Samaritan Counsellors. But deal effectively with the threat of ISIS? So often their approach appears namby pamby when strength is required. They preach a sort of Andy Pandy politics. Bless them. 

Called to the Headmaster's study there might be some tears of regret following a polite submission - even if they'd done nothing wrong. I wonder, could the intensity of today's world be rather too much for them?  

Today's Labour Party?  The working man's party?  Has a leader with supposed close links to the UK trade union movement. And yet it's probably still a party politically to the right of  Edward Heath's Conservative government of 1970 -1974! Is it any wonder traditional Labour voters at last finding their voices, courageously question the  real motives of their fathers' and mothers' political heroes? 

Whatever they might say publicly, Labour politicians have given the impression of bobbing along in a sort of protective bubble. Perhaps it's a bubble grown out of an unspoken and impenetrable cross-party fraternity encouraged by an elite educational background? Or perhaps it's just the knowledge, or the hope, that LibLabCon will protect themselves before they protect their supporters.  Take, for example, the closing of ranks when issues arose concerning Politicians' expenses. Labour voters never dreamed their representatives would get involved in such a thing! But of course they could quite believe it of Conservatives and Liberals! Was this when the Labour Party confirmed suspicions it no longer deserved trust? 

Ed Milliband appears to have done his best to restore that trust but it's an uphill struggle not helped by his personal standing in the popularity stakes. And how much longer will it take before he recognises that a majority of Brits appear to want out of the European Union?

Called to the Headmaster's study Labour would certainly put up a fight. Of course Ed should really take some notes to remind him why he'd done nothing wrong.  In fact, lad, you might not do better than send in John Prescott - with or without notes I'd back him any day when it comes to a punch-up.

The Tories. What can I say?  David Cameron the not-so-Conservative Prime Minister. Head of a failed Coalition. Allowing the Andy Pandy Party to influence his decisions on a needs-must basis. It's his only excuse for what comes over as clouded softly softly judgement. Along with Labour his party no longer commands the trust it once had. For example his promise to hold a Referendum on Europe - in or out - is hollow. Few believe the Conservative Party would take the U.K. out of Europe even if a Referendum required.

Called to the Headmaster's study Dave would no doubt send in a substitute; any substitute. Most likely, of course, it would be poor old Cleggy (after all he understands the "Smithers" world) armed with a carefully drafted "confession" and a plea in mitigation.  Meanwhile Dave's on the phone to a few old school friends hoping to sort things out - well at least on a personal level?

Leaving the best to last I read today about the huge leap in success of the UK Independence Party.  From here it seems the success is due quite simply to UKIP being many of the things LibLabCon are not. 

To be honest, open, frank, courageous, and forthright, as a politician used to court political suicide. Economy with the truth was almost admired! But the British Public, looking for political change for the better, seem attracted to this new quite open and honest approach. It is a dangerous time for UKIP.  

LibLabCon and parts of the British Establishment appear to be nervous of a change in the political balance, and may do something about it,  Much of this Establishment concern has been not because of self-preservation (although surely some has been) but because of a genuine concern that as a new political party any UKIP Members of Parliament would lack the breadth and depth of experience to contribute to government. Given the defection of Douglas Carswell to UKIP and the strong possibility of many other defectors from the Conservative and Labour parties - and maybe even defection attempts by Liberals closer to the courageous end of the scale - such arguments no longer hold good. UKIP is on the up and up and LibLabCon should treat the competition very seriously. Just look at how close John Bickley (UKIP) came to taking the so-called "safe" Labour seat of Heywood and Middleton.

And so now can we imagine the call of Nigel Farage to the Headmasters study? No doubt, keeping the Head informed, he would go when it was sensible to go and not before. He would know he'd screwed up a bit and was probably down for a good smacking! A knock on the door and wait to be called. Maybe time for a quick ciggie? We're on. Discussion over a cup of tea - O.K. maybe something a bit stronger. 

"O.K. I'll come clean. I might have screwed up a bit. Apologies. But just look at the up-side!" 

And with no more than a slapped hand he would depart the Head's study with yet another UKIP member. Honest, open, frank, courageous, forthright and himself. People respect that.

UKIP IN DECLINE OR ASCENDANCY

From over here in Spain I watch the progress of #UKIP with interest. I've admired the honesty of its leader, its broad appeal to the UK electorate, and its growing support.

I, too, have very little doubt that the #U.K. would be better off outside of the EU. But how will it extricate itself?  Who will say that a referendum producing a majority in favour of leaving the EU, is a guarantee that the #U.K. will actually leave the E.U? 

 A #UKIP government would appear to be the only sure way of  waving the EU, but not its people,  goodbye.

But can UKIP ever expect to form a government? Or will it simply become just another pressure group? Is #UKIP in decline or ascendancy? 

It seems to me that unfortunately #UKIP's political profile, is perceived as immature by some quite influential people. Some of these people are in Industry, some are in other countries, some politicians, and some form part of the U.K. electorate.  Of course there are other groups. 

For example who would deny that in a peaceful country no political party gets to govern unless it has a sound relationship with that country's Civil Service? #UKIP need to work on this.  Whatever the certainty of their feelings towards the Civil Service and the #PublicSector generally,  #UKIP needs to show some political maturity and get to grips with these issues. I believe UKIP's leadership already understand this; but maybe its grass-roots have some growing to do?

I recall that when I last wrote from Spain voicing some gentle criticism relating to the ebullient Mr Bloom, I was savaged by several grass-roots UKIP members who suggested I would do well to remain in Spain!!  Perhaps not the best way to treat an occasionally supportive political commentator - and definitely immature politically, bless them!!  "Not helpful" as the Minister would say!    

UKIP is already a useful and quite successful agent for change.  But it knows that's not enough to achieve its main objective.  

#Cameron, #Clegg and #Milliband and their very influential industrial and commercial colleagues, and the #CivilService, appear to be stuck to the EU with superglue....well that's how some perceive things!  #UKIP seems to be the only U.K. party hoping to break the apparent bonds.  But to do so, should they first think about changing how they are perceived? A UKIP Government might then become a real possibility rather than a remote hope? 

Of course, without a disciplined approach, this could turn into an impossible struggle. But who will blame me for wishing any well-motivated politician good fortune in their endeavours?

Oh........and to any UKIP supporters who feel uncomfortable with these comments, I apologise! Follow the example of your leader Mr #Farage and express views intelligently, from a soundly researched base, and with political maturity.

UK ABOUT TO LEAVE EUROPE ?

The U.K. political spectrum is changing.  U.K. voters have had enough of broken promises; they've had enough of what they see as devious politicians unable to give a straight answer, politicians who appear to carry but a thin veneer of honesty. They dislike the disproportionate, and by all accounts nepotistic, influence of the Public School set seen in Conservative, Labour and Liberal parties (the latter no longer "mainstream")  No matter where they looked Conservative, Labour, Liberal, Green - many found cause to shudder and, in desperation, hid their political head in their hands. The same goes for what they see going on in a dysfunctional EU.

But now things have changed.  Much to the apparent annoyance of the old established parties a fellow called #Nigel Farage and a party called U.K. Independence Party (#UKIP) have taken the country by storm.

Looking from afar I asked myself quite how this could have happened.  And from afar the answer was clear.  Here is a party who's leader says what he believes, who acts quite naturally ("... if you need me I'm in the pub"), answers questions clearly and frankly, and promotes the party's main objectives honestly. And here is a party which places great store in its candidates having real business experience rather than being "career" politicians.

It will be interesting to see how #Conservative, #Labour and #Liberal politicians deal with this ever burgeoning challenge to their established "authority".  Will it be by honest, frank and open debate? Or will the temptation of dirty tricks be simply too much to bear? Watch this space!!   

INCOMPETENT EUROPE?

When I was a lad the "Continent" was the word we used to describe  European countries "over the Channel." Frankly, as kids, we always felt a cut above them. Maybe the proximity of the Second World War ( to be re-christened I understand as The European Civil War !!) had something to do with it. Then in the sixties the word "Europe" crept in big time. Gradually the U.K. started a rather unwilling closer association with things European. They were spurred on by Ted Heath whose other great love was playing his organ. As time went by there was even a phase when new-born Eurocrats started mumbling about a United States of Europe !!  And then we began to hear more and more about the Eurozone.

Well ,as I have blogged before, the Eurozone seems now about to fall apart; and whatever the reasons, the consequence today is reflected by the currency.  And the rest of Europe could be dragged down with it whether or not they use the rapidly devaluing currency.

Can we really understand what's going on ?  Of course we can.  It's the same old story of politicians, bureaucracy, and incompetence. How for example is Europe organised? Well it isn't.

There are a load of countries in Europe. Some of the countries are members of the European Union, formerly the European Community and itself formerly the European Economic Community, and some of them are members of the Eurozone. Now some of the European countries are not actually members of the Eurozone but use its currency ( i.e Andorra, Montenegro, and Kosovo). And some European countries are not members of the Eurozone but are members of the European Union. Some countries, the clever ones, don't belong to either.  I could go on......It's a buggers muddle. 


So many of the poorer European countries will benefit when (maybe if) the Euro collapses and countries return to their original national currencies. The stronger economies will suffer in the short term. Perhaps that is equitable. 

COLLAPSE OF THE EURO AND THE EUROZONE

I can't help thinking this is the calm before the storm.  Have you noticed there is almost a news blackout on the struggling European countries and their economies? It's almost as though Greece, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Spain no longer have any financial problems !! Ponder this for a moment.  Is it all too good to be true?

True there are some parts of Europe where confidence is returning.  But therein lies the problem. Now is the time the stronger countries of the Eurozone could contemplate "pulling up the ladder."  They will see a way forward for themselves but not for their weaker Eurozone partners.  How strong Eurozone loyalty when really put to the test ?

No this is the calm before the storm.  What form of storm might well be the issue.  Watch this space.

EUROZONE - EUROPE AND ITS VICE PRESIDENT

Just watched an interview of this woman on BBC World.  It confirmed my suspicions that the UK should have absolutely nothing to do with Europe as forced down the throats of its participants by "Brussels."  The woman was asked many interesting questions; she didn't give one straighforward answer, bless her.  But marks out of ten? Nil points.

However the impression she gave was that pretty much everyone in the European Community will fall in line - repeat will fall in line - with dictates from Brussels.  Even when asked about the threat to put Hungary into liquidation unless it changed its laws to comply with a particular dictate she ducked.  Nevertheless the impression I was left with was one of blackmail; change your law or you don't get the money!  Perhaps I'm wrong; maybe it was a language problem?  But whatever - that's the impression I got.

And the final killer question?  What will happen to Greece?  Well of course she didn't get anywhere near answering that one.  But we'll find out any day now.  Will Brussels ditch them?  I'm going to say yes. Sooner than you think.  But if not, then definitely later.

No the UK ( or England and Wales if it comes to that ) can do without any further "Brussels" involvement.  Quite frankly, unlike the majority of real people in Europe ( including the real residents of Belgium !),  they're just not our type.