Monday, June 18, 2012

GREECE VOTES TO HELP GERMAN EXPORTS ?

Greek people can be incredibly kind.  The recent vote of 29.5% in favour of staying in the Eurozone is evidence of their kindness.  Well its evidence of the kindness of 29.5% of the 60% who took the trouble to vote.  I never imagined they would be prepared to preserve the low value of the German Euro ( aka Deutsche Mark) and so enable magnificent Germany to live in the certainty of a continuing healthy export performance.  In effect Greece and the other struggling European countries are subsidising Germany and definitely not vice versa. Without the poor relations in the Eurozone the Euro's value would soar stacking up no end of trouble for  Europe's stronger economies. 

Many commentators ( especially those down at the dear old BBC ) warn of immediate perils if countries leave the Eurozone.  Immediate perils to whom ?  Certainly not the countries leaving the Eurozone.  And few commentators look at the longer term.  I have blogged before to say how much better Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and even Spain might be if only they had the courage to revert to their original currencies, proud once more to stand on their own feet making their own decisions in the best interests of their country.  True the drachma, for example,  would assume a unit value less than the current unit worth of the Euro. But therein is the advantage.  The relative trading position of Greece would improve immediately and with it the opportunity to strengthen its trading position in geographical Europe and worldwide.  Likewise German exports would slow down as progressively they became more expensive. Somehow the German economy would need to adjust to the changed characteristics of the playing field !

The Eurozone with Greece as a participant is probably finished.  A vote to stay in the Eurozone by 18% of those allowed to vote does not solve anything.  By tomorrow a new Greek government may be cobbled together.  However, it will have to be a rather special type of government to take the Greek people where they don't want to go.  I reckon the chance of success is zero.  But then, going forward,  (and hopefully civil unrest is avoided) the Greek people can think and vote yet again.  Perhaps to vote in huge numbers to revert to their own currency, and move on by setting a splendid example to the other struggling Eurozone economies. 

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