Most stuff I read is pessimistic about economic outcomes. But in my book economists are no more likely to accurately predict economic outcomes than weather forecasters are likely to predict next month's weather. Successful economists or meteorologists have probably been very lucky, or maybe developed skins so thick they are desensitised to all but multiple lightning strike.
Both disciplines are relatively black arts. These highly intelligent, very well educated guys have got teams of similar people and stacks of state of the art hardware gathering and analysing "relevant" information from every conceivable source. But when it comes down to it, whether it's an economic or weather forecast, the predictions are subjective. Meteorologists are naturally more pessimistic when it's winter; and economists start searching for the precipice when business is a bit slow.
Both however are extremely competent at recording what's happened and therein lies their strength.
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